Rotterdam, Europe's biggest port, is running out of room for more oil, US reserves are at a 19-year record and tankers are being used as floating storage off Britain's south coast, even though OPEC is reducing production.
В Роттердаме, крупнейшем порту Европы, больше негде хранить нефть. Ее запасы в США достигли самого высокого за последние 19 лет уровня, а на южном берегу Великобритании для ее хранения используются танкеры. И это при постоянном снижении добычи странами ОПЕК.
"From a commodities point of view, world trade is appalling and the demand is just not there, " said Ahmad Abdallah, commodities analyst at Gavekal, the economics consultancy.
"Нынешнее состояние мировой торговли приводит в ужас товарных аналитиков. Спрос попросту исчез", - говорит Ахмад Абдалла, аналитик по товарным рынкам в консультационной компании Gavekal.
"All inventories are rising - they are bursting at their seams."
По его словам, хранилищ не хватает.
Oil prices rose to a five-week high last week above $53 a barrel in line with the recent bull run on the world's equity markets.
На прошлой неделе цены на нефть поднялись до пятинедельного максимума, превысив отметку $53 за баррель, что вполне соответствует "бычьему" тренду на мировых рынках ценных бумаг.
Yet despite an OPEC decision last November to cut output by a record 4.2m barrels a day, a move which began to come into effect in February, the fall in demand has been even more striking.
Однако, несмотря на принятое в ноябре прошлого года решение ОПЕК сократить добычу на рекордные 4, 2 млн баррелей в день, которое вступило в силу в феврале, падение спроса оказалось еще более сокрушительным.
Goldman Sachs estimated last week that global storage capacity could be exhausted by June.
На прошлой неделе Goldman Sachs предупредил, что емкость глобальных резервуаров по хранению нефти может оказаться исчерпанной уже к июню.
Government figures in the US, the world's biggest oil consumer, put reserves at 375m barrels, rising by 4m barrels in one week in April alone.
По данным правительственной статистики, в США – самом крупном потребителе нефти в мире – ее запасы составляют 375 млн баррелей, причем за одну неделю в апреле они выросли на 4 млн.
One estimate said that in addition 100m barrels were currently being stored in tankers at sea across the world – some of these are visible in Lyme Bay off the coast of Dorset and Devon.
По экспертным оценкам, еще 100 млн баррелей хранятся на танкерах в море, и некоторые из них видны в заливе Лайм у побережья Дорсета и Девона.
Mr Abdallah said official estimates of oil usage for this year had been based on more optimistic assumptions than economic reality.
Абдалла считает, что официальные оценки объема нефти, потребленной в этом году, основываются скорее на оптимистичных предположениях, а не на экономической реальности.
An average of analysts' predictions reckons on a reduction in demand of 1.5m barrels a day for 2009 over last year, while the International Energy Agency is predicting a fall of 2.5m barrels, but an estimate based purely on current economic growth figures would put the overall decline at 3m.
В среднем прогнозы аналитиков говорят о том, что спрос на нефть в 2009 году по сравнению с предыдущим годом сократится на 1, 5 млн баррелей в день, тогда как Международное энергетическое агентство прогнозирует падение на 2, 5 млн баррелей.
He said it was a similar story in other commodities, with companies building up inventories while prices were cheap.
По словам аналитика, в отношении других товаров повторяется та же история - компании наращивают запасы, пока цены остаются низкими.
"I can't see demand picking up for the rest of this year, " he said. "Even if it picks up next year it is going to be from a very weak base."
"Не думаю, что спрос до конца года будет расти, - говорит он. - Даже если он вырастет в следующем году, то он будет отталкиваться от очень низкой базы".
Goldman Sachs set a price target 10pc lower than at present, at about $45, for July, while Peter Voser, chief financial officer for Royal Dutch Shell, told reporters last week that it was "difficult to see an uptick in the oil or gas price" in the next 12 to 18 months.
Goldman Sachs считает, что цены на нефть будут на 10% ниже, чем сегодня, и в июле составят $45, тогда как Питер Возер, главный финансовый директор Royal Dutch Shell, на прошлой неделе сказал журналистам, что на последующие 12-18 месяцев он не видит факторов, которые могли бы вызвать рост цен на нефть и газ».
The weak demand for oil will add fuel to the arguments of those who argue the current bull run on the equity markets is a classic fools' rally.
Слабый спрос на нефть станет еще одним аргументом в устах тех, кто считает, что не стоит полагаться на текущий "бычий" тренд на рынке акций.
"The further (the oil price) rises, the more sceptical you become, " said Mark Pervan, head of commodities research at ANZ.
"Чем выше поднимаются цены на нефть, тем больше поводов для скепсиса, - говорит Марк Перван, глава исследовательского отдела по товарным рынкам в ANZ.
"We are operating in a global recession and oil markets are a proxy for global growth."
- Мы работаем в условиях глобальной рецессии, и нефтяные рынки - индикаторы глобального роста".
By Richard Spencer in Dubai
Списоклитературы
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