2000 Presidential Race Essay Research Paper Jason

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2000 Presidential Race Essay Research Paper

Jason Bankston

November 6 2000

Government Research Project

ALABAMA

Recent polls show Bush as leading by 46% with Gore at 38%. Alabama has a strong Republican voting history. Sixty percent of Alabamans view themselves as conservatives. Alabama has few large cities that attract minorities and other groups that would vote Democratic. Bush has a solid win in this state. Nine electoral votes for Bush.

ALASKA

In Alaska Bush leads with a 52% margin to Gore s 28%. Like Alabama Alaska has few large cities that attract Democratic votes. What Alaska does have however are oil fields which attract big money and Republican votes. Forty-eight percent of Alaskans show an unfavorable opinion toward Al Gore. Bush has a solid victory in Alaska. Three electoral votes for Bush.

ARKANSAS

Bush leads with a narrow margin of 47% to Gore s 45%. However Arkansas has a slight Democratic voting history. Since it is by such a narrow margin there is a chance that Gore could regain the lead before Tuesday. But for the moment Bush is the likely victor. Six electoral votes for Bush.

ARIZONA

With Bush leading the race with 49% to Gore s 37%. Bush is the likely winner in Arizona. Arizona has a marginal Republican voting history. The margin between favorable and unfavorable opinions for Gore (only 4%) is relatively small. While Bush s margin is much larger (15%). In a state with 53% of the people consider themselves conservatives Bush will likely take the state. Eight electoral votes for Bush.

CALIFORNIA

Gore currently leads California 44% to 41%. In a state with two very large cities California will generate a large number of Democratic votes. Also many people in the state are concerned with the environment and will go towards Gore s environmental policy. This is a very tight race. Gore will mostly likely win this state. Fifty-four electoral votes for Bush.

COLORADO

Most polls show Bush as the leader of Colorado with 49% to Gore s 33%. In a state where 56% of the likely voters consider themselves Republicans the Texas Governor will likely win. Eight electoral votes for Bush.

CONNECTICUT

In a state where more people are adamantly anti-Bush Gore will likely take the victory with 46% of the vote. This small but densely populated area would tend to attract more Democratically oriented votes. In this race Gore will probably triumph. Eight electoral votes for Gore.

DELAWARE

This is another very close race. Gore leads with 44% to Bush s 43%. Delaware has also shown a very subtle history of voting Democratic. Fewer people show a negative opinion of Gore than do those that have negative opinions of Bush. Although it is a very close race Gore will be the likely winner. Three electoral votes for Gore.

FLORIDA

In Florida Bush leads by a very narrow margin. He holds 47% over Gore s 45%. Since it is such a close race it is important to look at the state s voting history. The Orange State has shown a moderately strong history of voting Republican. With the numbers being so close it is hard to accurately judge the likely winner however Bush will probably win this state. Twenty-five electoral votes for Bush.

GEORGIA

In a state made up of 55% Conservatives Bush is carrying the lead with 50% to Gore s 40%. Georgia has shown a history of voting moderately conservative. Georgia s population is made up of a large number of rural farming people. They will be more tempted to go for Bush s tax plan (especially the abomination of the death tax). Bush has a solid win in Georgia. Thirteen electoral votes for Bush.

HAWAII

Hawaii will be a solid Gore victory. Gore leads with 52% to Bush s 32%. Four electoral votes for Gore.

IDAHO

Idaho will be a landslide victory for Bush. He carries 62% to Gore s 24%. Idaho has a history of voting solidly Republican. In this state largely made up of farmers its citizens will agree more so with Bush s Republican ideals. The number one thing they have to benefit from Bush s election would be the elimination of the estate tax. Bush will definitely win this state. Four electoral votes for Bush.

ILLINOIS

Illinois is a tough state to judge. Illinois has demonstrated a mild history for voting Democratic. However a large majority of the voters consider themselves Conservatives. Currently Gores carries a four point lead over Bush. In a state with a large and diverse city as Chicago more Democratic votes would be expected. Gore will likely win this race. Twenty-two electoral votes for Gore.

INDIANA

Indiana should be a solid win for Bush. This state has a reputation for voting more conservatively than most. With such a wide gap between the candidates percentages (52 to 32) it would take severe measures to reverse the outcome of this race. Triumph for Bush. Twelve electoral votes for Bush.

IOWA

Bush should take home the Iowa victory. However this is a very close race (46% to 42%). In a state largely based on agriculture its citizens stand to benefit most from Bush s policies (especially his tax policy). Even with such a narrow margin Bush will be the most likely choice in Iowa. Seven electoral votes for Bush.

KANSAS

Bush carries Kansas with a vote of 51% to Gore s 32%. Kansas has a strong history of voting Republican and most voters consider themselves Conservatives. Without a doubt Bush will win this state. Six electoral votes for Bush.

KENTUCKY

In the state of Kentucky Bush should have no trouble winning. He carries a solid majority (48% to 39%). Kentucky carries a slightly conservative voting record and more than half of its citizens would call themselves Republicans. It should not be a challenge for Bush to win this state. Eight electoral votes for Bush.

LOUISIANA

Bush is leading the state of Louisiana by a very small margin. He has 48% to the Vice President s 41%. Louisiana has demonstrated the pattern of voting very close to the middle of the road. However 64% of its people considered themselves largely conservative. Although it is such a close race Bush should not have much trouble taking Louisiana. Nine electoral votes for Bush.

MAINE

In Maine there is another very close race with Bush leading Gore 43% to 39%. Like many other states Maine has shown a history of voting slightly liberal while most citizens consider themselves Conservatives. There is a chance that Gore take the lead but Bush will probably take this state. Four electoral votes for Bush.

MARYLAND

This state will be a win for Gore. He is currently carrying a 47% majority. In Maryland Bush s disapproval rating is actually higher that his approval rating. This state has shown a mild history for voting for Democratic candidates so Gore should win. Ten electoral votes for Gore.

MASSACHUSETTS

This state is an easy victory for Gore. He leads 49% to Bush s 28%. The state has shown a strong style of voting for the Democratic candidate. And most of the people show a strong dislike for Bush. Leading with such a large gap it is extremely unlikely that Bush will gain the majority. Twelve electoral votes for Gore.

MICHIGAN

Michigan is a toss up. It is so close (Bush 45% Gore 44%) that anything could happen before Tuesday. Some campaigning in this state could easily turn these eighteen electoral votes around. However most of the campaigning will probably occur in California where there are many more votes up for grabs. For the moment Bush is the most likely winner in Michigan. Eighteen electoral votes for Bush.

MINNESOTA

With the race running neck and neck a definitive winning candidate is hard to choose. The most recent poll shows the two candidates tied perfectly with 38% each. History has shown Minnesota to have a relatively strong Democratic voting record. Therefore it would not be unwise to say that Gore will get most of the 22% undecided votes. Ten electoral votes for Gore.

MISSISSIPPI

Mississippi is a very strong Republican state. Bush is currently leading the Vice President 48% to 39%. A very large percentage of its citizens consider themselves Conservative and Mississippi has demonstrated a long history of voting Republican. The winner in this state will be Bush. Seven electoral votes for Bush.

MISSOURI

In Missouri although it is a tight race Bush carries the lead 47% to Gore s 42%. Even though Missouri has demonstrated a shallow Democratic voting style most people of this state view themselves as Conservatives. Bush should win Missouri. Eleven electoral votes for Bush.

MONTANA

Bush is expected to win Montana. A large number of people in this state consider themselves to be Republican and Montana has a strong reputation for voting conservatively. With a lot of farmers in Montana people will like Bush s plan for the elimination of the estate tax and his other plans for the future of agriculture. Montana belongs to Bush. Three electoral votes for Bush.

NEBRASKA

Bush will take Nebraska. With a large number of farming acres and big money mines and steel mills its citizens have a lot to gain from Bush s ideas. This would explain the wide gap between Bush s 51% and Gore s 31%. With this wide margin it will be hard if not impossible for Gore to gain the majority. Five electoral votes for Bush.

NEVADA

In a strong Republican state Bush carries the lead with 49% to 37%. Nevada has shown a history of voting Republican and a large number of its citizens consider themselves conservative. Even in this fairly close race Bush is most likely to prevail. Four electoral votes for Bush.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

It would be expected that Bush be victorious in New Hampshire. He currently is leading Gore 46 to 38%. New Hampshire has shown in its past to vote moderately conservative. A solid number of its citizens call themselves Republican. Despite closeness of this race it would be safe to assume Bush as the winner of New Hampshire. Four electoral votes for Bush.

NEW JERSEY

Gore currently leads Bush here by 45 to 39%. New Jersey had demonstrated in its past to be a very moderate state. Since Gore s approval rating it substantially higher than his disapproval rating and since more people disapprove of Bush than approve Gore should win this state. Fifteen electoral votes for Gore.

NEW MEXICO

Despite the narrow margin Bush will probably beat Gore in New Mexico. New Mexico has in the past shown itself to be almost moderate in its voting style. However almost half of its voters would consider themselves conservative. Even in this close race Bush should triumph. Five electoral votes for Bush.

NEW YORK

Gore is leading New York with a strong margin of 50 to 36%. It would take nothing short of a miracle to save Bush in this election. New York has been a strong Democratic state for some time. Not only does Bush have very few votes he also has a very strong disapproval rating in this state. Gore will be victorious. Thirty-three electoral votes for Gore.

NORTH CAROLINA

In this strong Republican state Governor Bush carries the lead with 50% to Gore s 40%. North Carolina has demonstrated a strong history of Republican votes and many of its citizens consider themselves Republican. In North Carolina Bush should take home the votes. Fourteen electoral votes for Bush.

NORTH DAKOTA

In this rural state where well over half of its people considered themselves Republicans Bush leads with 49% to Gore s 34%. North Dakota has demonstrated a large number of Conservative votes in the past. Bush should have no trouble taking this state. Three electoral votes for Bush.

OHIO

Another reliable win for Bush. He is currently leading Al Gore with 48% of the vote to Gore s 39%. In this state over half of the people consider themselves Conservative. With a mild Republican voting history Bush should be able to take this state. Twenty-one electoral votes for Bush.

OKLAHOMA

Oklahoma is a very strong Republican state in which Bush carries the lead with 52% to Gore s 34%. Some 64% of its people call themselves conservatives and historically Oklahoma has voted very conservatively. Therefore this should be an easy solid win for Bush. Eight electoral votes for Bush.

OREGON

Bush currently leads the Oregon race with 43% to Gore s 38%. Since this is such a narrow margin and since Oregon has previously picked Democratic candidates Gore could probable win this state with some campaigning. However that should not be expected to happen as there are only seven electoral votes in this state. At this moment Bush will be the victor. Seven electoral votes for Bush.

PENNSYLVANIA

In a state previously known for liberal choices Bush is ironically leading with 47% to Gore s 43%. Since this is such a close race and there are so many votes up for grabs it would not be unexpected to see Gore come take this state. However Bush will probably maintain his majority. Twenty-three electoral votes for Bush.

RHODE ISLAND

In this largely Liberal state Gore should have no trouble accomplishing a win. He currently leading Bush 49% to 30%. With a strong past of liberal votes this state holds strongly to Gore s ideas and beliefs. This state should be a relatively simple victory for Gore. Four electoral votes for Gore.

SOUTH CAROLINA

In South Carolina Bush will easily take the winner s seat.

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