ECONOMIC THEORY AND MODELS
Economic theories simplify reality to allow us to understand basic economic forces and how individuals cope with the problems of scarcity. We can observe actions and their consequences. Observation and description are not sufficient for understanding and ultimately predicting actions. Theory establishes relationships between cause and effect. We use it to interpret actions 'and outcomes so we can explain the process by which the actions were undertaken and the outcomes achieved. The purpose of theory in all scientific analysis is to explain the causes of phenomena we observe. To conduct economic analysis we frequently need to engage in abstraction. This involves making assumptions about the economic environment and human motivation that simplify the real world enough to allow us to isolate forces of cause and effect. Any theory is a simplification of actual relationships.
A successful theory provides insights into the physical or social relationships it studies. Economic theories are developed to explain such important observable quantities as the production, prices and consumption of goods and services, the employment of workers, and levels of saving and investment.
Economic variables are quantities that can have more than one value. For example, the price of an item is an economic variable representing what we must give up in exchange for each unit of that item. Price is an economic variable because it can go up or down as changes occur in the economy. An economic theory of price seeks to determine the causes for changes in the price of an item.
An economic model is a simplified way of expressing how some sector of the economy functions. An economic model contains assumptions that establish relationships among economic variables. We use logic, graphs, or mathematics to determine the consequences of the assumptions. In this way we can use the model to make predictions about how a change in economic conditions results in changes in decisions affecting economic variables. Economists often use the term "model" as a synonym for theory.
ECONOMIC MODELS
Many economic models are developed using the deductive method through which observations are used to make assumptions about economic behaviour or productive and technological relations. Logic is then used to trace out the implications of the assumptions using a model. For example, a model of the supply of compact discs might assume that suppliers seek to maximize profits from selling that item. The economic variables affecting the profitability of selling CD players are isolated. Logic can then be used to show how a change in one of the economic variables affects the profitability of selling more CD players. For example, if it can be shown that an increase in the price of CD players makes it profitable to sell more, the model would imply that whenever the price increases, the quantity supplied will also go up;
The conclusions of the model can be tested by examining factual data to see if actual relationships are consistent with those of the underlying theory. Conclusions that are consistently supported by evidence are called economic laws or economic principles.
Economic models are abstract because they don’t attempt to capture all the relevant influences on behaviour. By concentrating on only one goal, even though this is not realistic, a model can more clearly unveil basic forces of cause and effect.
An important qualifier in constructing economic models is hypotheses which represent the untested implications of a model. A hypothesis is a statement of a relationship between two or more variables. An example of a testable hypothesis is: The number of CDs sold per year will increase if their price fells while all other influences on willingness and ability of consumers to buy are unchanged. To test this hypothesis we need a method of accounting for the effects of changes in all economic conditions on the value of the economic variables this model seeks to explain.
And these are the steps necessary to construct an economic model:
1. Selection of economic variables among which cause-and-effect relationships are to be explained.
2. Assumptions about technology, constraints and human behaviour.
3. Analysis of the assumptions of the model for relationship among the economic variables it seeks to explain.
4. Testable hypotheses. A model whose implications are contradicted by empirical evidence is abandoned.
ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКАЯ ТЕОРИЯ И МОДЕЛИ
Экономические теории упрощают действительность, чтобы позволить нам понимать основные(элементарные) экономические силы и как люди справляются с проблемами дефицита. Мы можем наблюдать(соблюсти) действия и их последствия. Наблюдение и описание не достаточны для понимания и в конечном счете предсказания действий. Теория устанавливает(основывает) отношения между причиной и следствием. Мы используем это, чтобы интерпретировать действия 'и результаты, таким образом мы можем объяснить процесс, которым были предприняты действия, и результаты достигнуты. Цель теории во всем научном анализе состоит в том, чтобы объяснить причины явлений, которые мы наблюдаем(соблюдаем). Чтобы провести экономический анализ, мы часто должны участвовать в абстракции. Это вовлекает предположения создания об экономической обстановке и человеческом побуждении, которые упрощают реальное достаточно мир, чтобы позволить нам изолировать силы причины и следствия. Любая теория - упрощение фактических отношений.
Успешная теория обеспечивает способность проникновения в суть физических или социальных отношений, которые она изучает. Экономические теории развиты, чтобы объяснить такие важные заметные количества как производство, цены и потребление товаров и услуг(служб), занятости рабочих, и уровней экономии и инвестиций.
Экономические переменные - количества, у которых может быть больше чем одна ценность. Например, цена пункта(изделия) - экономическое представление переменной, что мы должны бросить в обмен на каждую единицу того пункта(изделия). Цена - экономическая переменная, потому что она может повыситься или вниз поскольку изменения(замены) происходят(встречаются) в экономике(экономии). Экономическая теория цены стремится определить причины для изменений в цене пункта(изделия).
Экономическая модель - упрощенный способ выразить, как некоторый сектор экономики(экономии) функционирует. Экономическая модель содержит предположения, которые устанавливают(основывают) отношения среди экономических переменных. Мы используем логику, графы, или математику, чтобы определить последствия предположений. Таким образом мы можем использовать модель, чтобы сделать предсказания о том, как изменение в экономических условиях(состояниях) приводит к изменениям в решениях, затрагивающих экономические переменные. Экономисты часто используют термин "модель" как синоним для теории.
ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ МОДЕЛИ
Много экономических моделей развиты, используя дедуктивный метод, через который наблюдения используются, чтобы сделать предположения об экономическом поведении или производительных и технологических отношениях. Логика тогда используется, чтобы проследить значения предположений, используя модель. Например, модель поставки компакт-дисков могла бы предположить, что поставщики стремятся максимизировать прибыль от продажи того пункта(изделия). Экономические переменные, затрагивающие доходность продажи игроков компакт-диска, изолированы. Логика может тогда использоваться, чтобы показать, как изменение в одной из экономических переменных затрагивает доходность продажи большего количества игроков компакт-диска. Например, если можно показать, что увеличение цены игроков компакт-диска делает выгодным продать больше, модель подразумевала бы, что всякий раз, когда цена увеличивается, поставляемое количество также повысится;
Заключения модели могут быть проверены, исследуя фактические данные, чтобы видеть, совместимы ли фактические отношения с таковыми из основной теории. Заключения, которые последовательно поддержаны свидетельством(очевидностью), называют экономическими законами или экономическими принципами.
Экономические модели абстрактны, потому что они не пытаются захватить все соответствующие(релевантные) влияния на поведение. Концентрируясь только на одной цели, даже при том, что это не является реалистическим, модель может более ясно представить основные(элементарные) силы причины и следствия.
Важный определитель в строительстве экономических моделей является гипотезами, которые представляют непроверенные значения модели. Гипотеза - утверждение(заявление) отношений между двумя или больше переменными. Пример тестируемой гипотезы: число(номер) компакт-дисков, проданных ежегодно, увеличится, если их цена fells, в то время как все другие влияния на готовность и способность потребителей купить неизменны. Чтобы проверить эту гипотезу, мы нуждаемся в методе составления(объяснения) эффектов изменений во всех экономических условиях(состояниях) на ценности экономических переменных, которые эта модель стремится объяснить.
И они - шаги, необходимые, чтобы построить экономическую модель:
1. Выбор экономических переменных, среди которых должны быть объяснены отношения причины и следствия.
2. Предположения о технологии, ограничениях и человеческом поведении.
3. Анализ предположений о модели для отношений среди экономических переменных это стремится объяснить.
4. Тестируемые гипотезы. Оставлена модель, значениям которой противоречит эмпирическое свидетельство(очевидность).
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